Arkansas City, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

030
FXUS63 KICT 051121
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
621 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild above average temperatures anticipated through the upcoming
  week.

- Gusty southerly wind will result in a very high grassland fire danger
  for parts of central and south central Kansas on Monday and
  Tuesday. A very high grassland fire danger will expand
  eastward on Wednesday to include the Flint Hills area.

- Unsettled weather returns late in the week and into the
  upcoming weekend.&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Tranquil spring weather is expected across the region today as a
ridge of high pressure moves slowly across the area bringing plenty
of insolation and light winds. Afternoon highs are expected to rise
into the mid and upper 60s for many areas. Normal highs for early
April are in the mid 60s. As high pressure sinks southward into the
Southern Plains tonight, light southerly winds will return.

Monday-Tuesday...a shortwave trough is progged to dig across the
Great Lakes early in the week helping to drive a cold front south
into the Central Plains. This front is progged to become stationary,
bisecting northern Kansas. There appears to be reasonable agreement
between the various short range models showing the front becoming
stationary between I-70 and Highway 56 before it returns northward
as a warm front as we move into the day on Tuesday. If this scenario
plays out, any low precipitation chances should remain north of the
forecast area with another mild day expected on Mon with highs in
the low 70s. Breezy southerly winds will return on Tuesday as low
pressure over the Central High Plains deepens allowing the pressure
gradient force to increase downstream. Another mild day is expected
while increasing winds could bring an increasing grassland fire
danger to the area.

Wednesday...breezy southwest winds are expected ahead of frontal
boundary on Wed as a vigorous mid/upper trough moves eastward across
the Northern Plains. Some increase in low level moisture is also
expected with some showers and storm possible late in the period. We
could see some strong/severe storms along the cold front with steep
mid-lvl lapse rate and 45-50 knots of deep layer shear progged but
with a late arrival, the best chances may remain over parts of
central KS or along the I-70 corridor.

This front may become stationary across southern KS on Thursday
providing a focus for showers and storms. Southwest mid/upper flow
is progged to develop late in the week and into the weekend bringing
a period of active weather with multiple opportunities for showers
and thunderstorms as a vigorous mid/upper trough develops over the
Southwest and moves into the central CONUS as we move into the
weekend.

&&


.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Light and variable winds will prevail through the period with
clear conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Breezy southerly winds will return early in the week resulting in a
very high grassland fire danger over much of central and parts of
south central Kansas on Monday and Tuesday during the afternoon
hours.

Southwest winds will increase across the area on Wednesday with
minimum relative humidity falling to around 30 percent over parts of
central Kansas resulting in very high grassland fire danger for
areas along and west of the Flint Hills.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...MWM
FIRE WEATHER...MWM